• Affordable Smartphone Shipments to Fall 61% During Festive Period; Premium Segment Value to Grow Over 40%
• 64% of Consumers Say Higher Prices Will Affect Purchase Decisions; 48% Would Wait for Better Deals
• 45% Plan Festive Smartphone Purchases, While Replacement Needs Sustain Broader Electronics Demand

New Delhi, November 6, 2026: Cyber Media Research (CMR) projects India’s smartphone market to decline 12% year-on-year (YoY) in CY2026, as rising memory costs, particularly for DRAM and NAND, and other component expenses increase pricing pressure and weigh on consumer demand. The impact is expected to be most pronounced in the affordable segment, while the premium segment is likely to gain in market value, reflecting higher average selling prices (ASPs) and a shift in market mix.

The divergence is expected to be particularly visible during the September–November festive period. According to CMR’s market estimates, affordable smartphone shipments (<INR 7,000) are projected to decline 61% YoY. Shipments in the value-for-money segment (INR 7,000-INR 25,000) are expected to fall 19%. In contrast, the premium smartphone segment (>INR 25,000) is projected to grow over 40% in market value. These divergent trends point to mounting pressure on affordable-device demand alongside continued value growth at higher price points.

Commenting on the market outlook, Sahil Solanki, Analyst, Cyber Media Research (CMR), said, “Rising component costs are creating a two-sided challenge for the smartphone industry. Affordable devices face greater pressure as brands seek to manage prices without compromising specifications or margins, while higher average selling prices can support premium-segment value growth even as overall market shipments contract.”

CMR’s survey of over 1,000 consumers across New Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Chennai who plan to purchase electronics or home appliances during the festive season highlights the tension between replacement needs and price sensitivity. While 87% of respondents are aware of recent price increases, 64% say higher prices will affect their smartphone purchase decisions. If prices exceed expectations, 48% would wait for a better deal, 30% would pay a little more and 17% would opt for a more affordable model.

At the same time, underlying replacement demand could support festive purchase intent. CMR’s survey finds that 59% of consumers planning a festive purchase intend to replace products they have used for more than five years. While this finding spans electronics and home appliances rather than smartphones alone, it points to an existing upgrade need that brands will need to convert amid rising prices and more deliberate spending.

Key Findings

• Smartphones lead festive purchase plans. Smartphones are the most planned festive purchase at 45%, ahead of refrigerators at 26% and smart TVs at 21%. Among consumers planning to buy smartphones and tablets, 35% intend to spend ₹35,000–₹50,000.
• Price sensitivity could constrain purchase conversion. Higher-than-expected prices are cited as a potential barrier by 48% of respondents, while 46% say festive discounts may not be attractive enough and 41% may wait for newer models. Additionally, 28% expect to spend less than they did during last year’s festive season.
• Brand trust and product value remain important. Brand trust is a purchase consideration for 68% of respondents, ahead of price discounts at 63%. Compatibility with existing devices matters to 79% of respondents. Among consumers who value built-in AI features, 50% are willing to pay a 10% premium.
• Online marketplaces lead channel preferences. Online marketplaces are the preferred purchase channel for 55% of respondents, followed by large-format retail at 23%. Discounts and cashback are the most attractive festive offers for 51%, followed by exchange value at 21%.

Commenting on consumer behaviour, Himanshi Pant, Analyst, Cyber Media Research (CMR), said, “The festive opportunity lies in converting existing purchase intent into sales. Replacement needs remain an important demand driver, but rising prices are making consumers more selective about when they buy and what they are willing to pay for. Brands will need to balance affordability with meaningful product differentiation, using targeted offers and exchange programmes to support conversion while clearly demonstrating the value of higher-priced devices.”